Crackdowns on immigration, the rising importance of the Latino vote and plunging birthrates are making news. Meanwhile, the U.S. population is projected to decline for the first time since the nation’s founding. Learn more about the demographic forces behind these headline issues and their impacts. This course will examine the history, causes and implications of major population patterns reshaping the U.S., with some international context.
Three sessions will focus on top drivers reshaping the nation’s population – immigration, racial and ethnic change, and ups and downs by age group. The fourth will look at the growing challenge of collecting accurate population data.
Each class will be taught by a different expert, mainly presenting on Zoom. Encore Learning member D’Vera (Dee) Cohn, who wrote about immigration and demographics for The Washington Post and Pew Research Center, will be in the classroom to manage the discussion and questions. Additional reading material will be offered. Note: The order of session topics may change.
Session 1: Immigration: How Did We Get Here and What Is Happening Now? (Jeffrey Passel, 10/7)
Recent dizzying changes in immigration policy are fueling headlines about birthright citizenship, illegal immigration, labor shortages and more. For the first time in more than 50 years, the number of U.S. immigrants has declined, with important implications for the future. Beyond the headlines, this class will look broadly at the history of U.S. immigration, as well as recent changes in where immigrants come from, how they got here and their legal status.
Session 2: How Is Racial and Ethnic Change Remaking the U.S.? (William Frey, 10/14)
The nation’s Latino, Asian and multiracial populations are growing rapidly, the Black population is spreading out and the White population is slowly shrinking. These changes will continue even with restrictions on U.S. immigration. This class digs into how these forces are transforming the makeup of different age groups, communities and regions, as well as influencing the nation’s politics.
Session 3: Shrinking Births and Surging Senior Population (Beth Jarosz, 10/21)
Maternity hospitals and under-enrolled colleges are closing, while senior housing is booming. There is a reason for that: births are declining and the 65-plus population is rising. Within a few years, older adults will outnumber children in this country. There are consequences for education, the labor force, pension funds, etc. This class will explore the complex reasons for and implications of these trends.
Session 4: How Are Population Numbers Collected and Can We Trust Them? (Nancy Potok and Elizabeth Hardy, 10/28)
The national census is an elaborately choreographed operation with results that influence government programs, business decisions and more. But more Americans are unwilling to respond to the census, and to surveys in general. There also are political challenges to census operations and rising costs. This class will look at how the federal government collects population data and possible innovations (some controversial). Arlington’s chief demographer will supply a local perspective on how the county uses population statistics and promotes census participation.
Jeffrey Passel is a senior demographer at Pew Research Center. He is a nationally known expert on immigration to the United States, including its history, geography and economic impact. He developed widely accepted estimates of U.S. unauthorized immigration. Previously, he was principal research associate at the Urban Institute and held various positions at the U.S. Census Bureau.
William Frey is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, where his research topics include urban areas, migration, race and political demographics. He also is a research professor at the University of Michigan. A revised version of his book Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America, published in 2015, is scheduled for release this year.
Beth Jarosz is a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy and vice president of the Association of Public Data Users. Previously, she was a senior program director at the Population Reference Bureau, overseeing projects on demographic, sociological and health trends.
Nancy Potok was chief statistician of the United States in the executive office of the president, Census Bureau deputy director and chief operating officer, and Department of Commerce deputy undersecretary for economic affairs. She is CEO at NAPx Consulting and active in American Statistical Association projects on the health of the federal statistical system.
Elizabeth Hardy is principal planner and demographer for Arlington County’s Department of Community Planning, Housing and Development. She worked on the county’s 2010 and 2020 Census promotion campaigns. She has a BS from George Mason University and a master of urban and regional planning from Virginia Tech.